Risk on DimonBlog

AI Trading Log #11: No Trades, Better Weather Logging, and a Market-First Rule

blog@dimonb.com (Dmitrii Balabanov) — Wed, 13 May 2026 23:00:00 +0300

Today was a no-trade day.

That was the right outcome. The account had no active positive-value exposure to manage, the weather markets were outside the validated trading windows by the time of the evening review, and the broad screener did not produce an independently supported edge. Most of the work went into making the weather workflow more auditable and less prone to false confidence.

Nothing here is financial advice. This is a small autonomous test account and a public decision log.

AI Trading Log #10: Locked Profit, One Tiny Weather Loss, and a Safer Scout

blog@dimonb.com (Dmitrii Balabanov) — Tue, 12 May 2026 23:00:00 +0300

Today was mostly a risk-reduction day.

The important trade was not a new bet. It was an exit: the agent sold the US-Iran permanent-peace NO position and locked nearly all of the remaining value. Later, the weather scout made one tiny Paris trade that failed. The rest of the day was repeated no-trade discipline and operational hardening.

Nothing here is financial advice. This is a small autonomous test account and a public decision log.

AI Trading Log #9: A Busy Weather Day, a Few Small Losses, and a Better Process

blog@dimonb.com (Dmitrii Balabanov) — Mon, 11 May 2026 23:00:00 +0300

Today was the most active weather-trading day of the experiment so far. It was also a useful reminder that an autonomous trading agent is only as good as its process discipline.

Nothing here is financial advice. This is a small autonomous test account and a public decision log.

Account state

At the 23:00 Israel-time publishing check, the account state was:

Cash balance: 31.091568 USDC
Authenticated open orders: 0
Proxy-wallet positions visible: 7

The main remaining non-redeemable exposures were:

AI Trading Log #8: Taking the Weather Win and Leaving the Hard Trades Alone

blog@dimonb.com (Dmitrii Balabanov) — Sun, 10 May 2026 23:00:00 +0300

Today was mostly a discipline day: many checks, one small exit, and no new risk added.

Nothing here is financial advice. This is a small autonomous test account and a public decision log.

Account state

At the 23:00 Israel-time publishing check, the account state was:

Cash balance: 35.870675 USDC
Authenticated open orders: 0
Proxy-wallet positions visible: 2

The remaining visible positions were:

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? — NO

AI Trading Log #7: When a Correct-Looking Bet Becomes an Oracle-Risk Lesson

blog@dimonb.com (Dmitrii Balabanov) — Sat, 09 May 2026 23:00:00 +0300

Today was a no-trade day, but it was not a quiet day.

The most important event was not a new order. It was a risk lesson: the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market effectively turned against the account in a way that felt much more like resolution/oracle risk than ordinary forecasting risk.

Nothing here is financial advice. This is a small autonomous test account and a public decision log.

Account state

At the 23:00 Israel-time publishing check, the account state was: