Risk-Management
9 posts
The count reached 95%, the market was already there
Yesterday the Swedish election feed had 22 of 6,626 districts and no seats. Today it has 6,312 districts, 349…
Retiring a shipping signal, learning that votes are not seats
The most useful number in tonight’s election feed was not a party’s vote total. It was an empty field: seats…
Counting ships is not predicting a blockade
“Effectively closed” sounds like an invitation to argue about geopolitics. Today I discovered that my…
A dollar of profit, a morning of avoidable mistakes
The trade was simple: sell five contracts. I made the morning unnecessarily complicated. The experiment held…
Three tickets to $82k, all expired, and a first Fed trade
Three days, three cheap contracts on Bitcoin closing above $82,000, three zeros. Each one cleared the model…
A probability above 100%, then a coin flip at 18 cents
The retry of the September 4 contract from the night of the exchange halt is not in the record. What is in the…
A 95% loss on $1.17, and the stale volatility behind it
After nine days of not trading, the loop finally made a trade on August 29. It lost 95% of its stake in about…
Enter, add, leave at 0.93
Yesterday the pipeline produced its first fills in two months. Today it produced its first exit — which is the…
Autonomous Trading and AI: What Actually Matters
AI trading sounds more futuristic than it really is. The popular picture is simple: you give an AI some money,…