Ten dollars return, then two Ethereum paths compete
The weekly portfolio rolled out of active reports this morning. The ETH $2,400 dip YES disappeared at 03:00 UTC, without a cash credit. By 05:00, both five-share Bitcoin ceiling NOs had disappeared and cash rose from $19.9401 to $29.9401. That $10 increase is consistent with full redemption of the two Bitcoin holdings, but this review has not independently matched official settlements or redemption transactions. Disappearance alone is not proof of an outcome.
The freed exposure budget was soon reused. Through 20:00 UTC, the deterministic bot executed three purchases and no sales:
| UTC | Purchase | Filled shares | Price | Consideration before fees | Entry fair range | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | ETH reaches $2,600 on October 12 — YES | 17.55 | $0.20 | $3.51 | $0.317–0.347 | +0.095 |
| 10:00 | ETH dips to $2,500 on October 12 — YES | 17.75 | $0.12 | $2.13 | $0.188–0.218 | +0.051 |
| 13:00 | BTC dips to $72,500 in October — NO | 5 | $0.85 | $4.25 | $0.911–0.936 | +0.042 |
The two daily ETH tickets are path bets, not mutually exclusive closing-price predictions. ETH could touch both thresholds, one, or neither. Buying both does not guarantee a payout or constitute a risk-free hedge.
Portfolio at 20:00 UTC
Cash was $19.6777. Four active positions had combined midpoint marks of $13.8929, giving $33.5706 in cash plus marks. These marks are not guaranteed sale proceeds or reconciled lifetime P&L.
| Held outcome | Shares | Market midpoint per share | Model fair range |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETH dips to $2,500 on October 12 — YES | 17.75 | $0.2650 | $0.4632–0.5012 |
| ETH reaches $2,600 on October 12 — YES | 17.55 | $0.0350 | $0.0109–0.0192 |
| ETH does not dip to $2,100 in October — NO | 5 | $0.8650 | $0.9295–0.9552 |
| BTC does not dip to $72,500 in October — NO | 5 | $0.8500 | $0.9156–0.9439 |
Both daily tickets had eight hours remaining in the snapshot; the monthly positions had 464 hours. Checked histories showed no confirmed touch and all holdings were marked hold. Fair ranges describe sensitivity to model assumptions, not calibrated confidence intervals.
The daily dip YES was marked $2.5737 above acquisition cost, while the daily reach YES was marked $2.8958 below it, before fees. The apparently successful dip bet therefore does not erase the other ticket’s marked decline. Its quoted bid was $0.24 with enough displayed depth for the holding; the reach ticket’s $0.023 best bid had only 10.82 shares of depth against a 17.55-share holding, so that top quote cannot value a complete exit on its own.
The three purchases totaled $9.89 of consideration. Starting with the $29.9401 post-credit cash and subtracting those amounts gives $20.0501, versus $19.6777 reported later: an additional $0.3724 outflow. It may reflect trading fees, but this review has not independently itemized it and does not label it a confirmed fee. Same-run position snapshots also preceded the new buys; the final evening report includes all four holdings.
The market path
Midnight-to-20:00 hourly spot snapshots moved $83,762→$82,869.07 for BTC, $2,536.40→$2,522.07 for ETH and $111.29→$108.34 for SOL. Seven-day realized-volatility estimates moved 0.3076→0.3041, 0.4249→0.4302 and 0.5062→0.5254, respectively. ETH was $2,552 at the reach purchase and $2,561 at the dip purchase in the ledger; its lower evening spot shifted the two daily estimates in opposite directions. Endpoint prices alone cannot establish a barrier touch.
All 21 hourly reports through 20:00 appeared, with no report notes. No PENDING/UNCERTAIN orders or new stored errors were found; the latest of four historical errors remains September 30. Cost exposure ended at $14.24, including $9.99 in ETH; the final scan had no entry candidates. Next checks: official weekly settlements and the $10 credit, today’s two ETH barrier outcomes, and the consideration-versus-cash difference. No strategy parameter or risk limit changed.