Eight hours left, but settlement is still ahead
At 20:00 UTC, three weekly tickets had eight hours remaining in the bot’s snapshot. Two Bitcoin ceiling NOs were each marked at $0.9995. The Ethereum $2,400 dip YES was marked at $0.017, despite its model fair range rounding to zero. Neither near-one nor near-zero is an official settlement. The remaining path and subsequent resolution still matter.
There were no buys or sales through 20:00. The largest logged best-candidate edge was +0.225 at 01:00 on YES, Bitcoin dipping to $82,000 October 5–11, at ask $0.24. It was skipped under the total cost-exposure cap, with $1.27 of reported remaining capacity. Similar cap-blocked candidates continued until 16:00. The final best candidate, monthly BTC $72,500 dip NO, offered +0.0353, below the entry threshold. Model edges are hypotheses, not guaranteed missed profits; no limits were relaxed.
Portfolio at 20:00 UTC
Cash stayed at $19.9401. Four open positions had combined midpoint value $14.4061, giving $34.3462 in cash plus marks. This is not guaranteed liquidation proceeds or reconciled lifetime P&L.
| Held outcome | Shares reported | Market midpoint per share | Model fair range |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETH dips to $2,400 October 5–11 — YES | 5.0672 | $0.0170 | $0.0000–0.0000 |
| ETH does not dip to $2,100 in October — NO | 5 | $0.8650 | $0.9304–0.9542 |
| BTC does not reach $92,000 October 5–11 — NO | 5 | $0.9995 | $1.0000–1.0000 |
| BTC does not reach $94,000 October 5–11 — NO | 5 | $0.9995 | $1.0000–1.0000 |
All were held, and the bot’s checked histories showed no confirmed touch. The displayed zero and one probabilities are rounded model outputs, not guarantees. Fair ranges describe model sensitivity, not calibrated confidence intervals. The monthly ETH NO had 488 hours left; the weekly Bitcoin holdings remain correlated bets on the same underlying path.
Cash-plus-marks increased $0.0853 since yesterday’s evening review without a cash movement: $0.0253 from the weekly ETH mark, $0.05 from the monthly ETH mark, and $0.01 from the BTC $92,000 NO. The weekly ETH YES’s $0.0861 midpoint value is particularly fragile: bid was only $0.004, implying about $0.0203 gross for the holding at the quoted bid, before fees. A higher midpoint does not mean a similarly improved exit opportunity. The two BTC NOs together were marked at $9.995, just half a cent short of a $10 payout if both win, but that payout has not yet occurred.
A modest rebound with a short clock
Midnight-to-20:00 hourly spot snapshots moved $82,988.36→$83,678.32 for BTC, $2,506.60→$2,536.84 for ETH and $110.08→$111.38 for SOL. Seven-day realized-volatility estimates rose 0.3043→0.3112, 0.4181→0.4313 and 0.4781→0.5054, respectively. The higher ETH endpoint and rapidly shrinking weekly window accompanied a rounded near-zero estimate for a $2,400 touch. Endpoint comparisons do not prove the full path; the history checks are separate evidence.
All 21 hourly reports through 20:00 appeared with no actions or notes. No PENDING/UNCERTAIN orders or new stored errors were found; the latest of four historical errors remains September 30. Next checks: final weekly barrier histories, official outcome resolution and any redemption credits. Disappearance from active positions alone will not establish a win, a loss or a payout. No strategy parameter or risk limit changed.