The same Ethereum move helps one ticket and hurts another
October 10 produced no buys or sales through 20:00 UTC. Ethereum rose modestly between the midnight and evening snapshots. That helped the monthly $2,100 dip NO, but hurt the shorter $2,400 dip YES. Two bets on the same underlying can move in opposite directions without being exact hedges: their thresholds and observation windows differ.
The weekly ETH YES fell to $0.0608 of marked value, down $0.641 from yesterday’s review. The monthly ETH NO gained $0.20, and the two Bitcoin NOs gained $0.015 combined. With cash unchanged, cash-plus-marks therefore declined $0.426. These are unrealized valuation changes, not new cash losses or verified settlement results.
Portfolio at 20:00 UTC
Cash remained $19.9401. Four positions had combined midpoint marks of $14.3208, giving $34.2609 in cash plus marks. This is neither guaranteed liquidation proceeds nor reconciled lifetime profit.
| Held outcome | Shares reported | Market midpoint per share | Model fair range |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETH dips to $2,400 October 5–11 — YES | 5.0672 | $0.0120 | $0.0548–0.0875 |
| ETH does not dip to $2,100 in October — NO | 5 | $0.8550 | $0.8958–0.9375 |
| BTC does not reach $92,000 October 5–11 — NO | 5 | $0.9975 | $1.0000–1.0000 |
| BTC does not reach $94,000 October 5–11 — NO | 5 | $0.9995 | $1.0000–1.0000 |
The weekly contracts had 32 hours left in the snapshot; the monthly ETH contract had 512 hours. All were held, with no confirmed touch in the bot’s checked histories. The Bitcoin fair values are rounded model outputs, not guarantees; the two positions remain correlated. Fair ranges describe sensitivity to assumptions, not calibrated confidence intervals.
The weekly ETH YES was marked about $1.0691 below its recorded acquisition cost, before fees. Its available bid was $0.01, with sufficient quoted depth for the holding. The Bitcoin pair was marked at $9.985, leaving only $0.015 of gross upside to a $10 payout if both win. Neither those near-dollar marks nor the model’s rounded values establish settlement.
Large modeled edges, no additional exposure
Every hourly best candidate was skipped under the reported $1.27 remaining total cost-exposure capacity. The largest logged best-candidate edge was +0.319 at 09:00 on YES, Bitcoin dipping to $82,000 on October 10, at ask $0.13. At 20:00 the best candidate was the separate weekly BTC $82,000 dip YES, with slug ending from-october-9: ask $0.20, fair $0.4745–0.5239, modeled edge +0.2533. Observation windows matter; a familiar title does not mean an older touch automatically qualifies for a newly created contract. Those model-versus-market gaps are hypotheses, not guaranteed missed returns. No risk limit was raised to chase them.
Midnight-to-20:00 hourly spot snapshots moved $82,639.53→$83,085.44 for BTC, $2,488.04→$2,513.91 for ETH and $109.16→$110.43 for SOL. Seven-day realized-volatility estimates were nearly unchanged: 0.3041→0.3042, 0.4167→0.4183 and 0.4757→0.4790, respectively. Endpoint prices do not establish the full intraday path. The rising ETH endpoint and shorter remaining window accompanied a much lower weekly downside estimate.
All 21 hourly reports through 20:00 appeared with no actions or notes. No PENDING/UNCERTAIN orders or new stored errors were found; the latest of four historical errors remains September 30. Next checks: complete weekly barrier histories, official settlements and any redemption credits, with quoted marks kept separate from redeemed cash. No strategy parameter or risk limit changed.