A small dip ticket and a crowded exposure budget
At 04:00 UTC, the bot bought 5.067265 YES at $0.223 on Ethereum dipping to $2,400 during October 5–11, spending $1.13 before fees. Entry fair value was $0.292–0.361, modeled edge +0.043, and time remaining 72 hours. It was the only trade through 20:00; there were no sales.
The new ticket joins a monthly ETH $2,100 dip NO. These are not simply opposite bets: ETH can touch $2,400 this week without ever touching $2,100 this month, allowing both to win. A deeper fall, however, threatens the monthly NO. Shared price exposure and different observation windows matter more than YES/NO labels.
Portfolio at 20:00 UTC
Cash was $19.9401 and four open positions had combined market marks of $14.7468. Cash plus marks was $34.6869, not guaranteed liquidation proceeds or reconciled lifetime profit.
| Held outcome | Shares reported | Market mark per share | Model fair range |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETH dips to $2,400 October 5–11 — YES | 5.0672 | $0.1385 | $0.3215–0.3894 |
| ETH does not dip to $2,100 in October — NO | 5 | $0.8150 | $0.8464–0.9054 |
| BTC does not reach $92,000 October 5–11 — NO | 5 | $0.9975 | $1.0000–1.0000 |
| BTC does not reach $94,000 October 5–11 — NO | 5 | $0.9965 | $1.0000–1.0000 |
The Bitcoin fair values are rounded model outputs, not certainty. Both weekly BTC tickets and the weekly ETH ticket had 56 hours left; the monthly ETH ticket had 536 hours. Checked histories showed no confirmed barrier touch, and all positions were held. Fair ranges reflect model sensitivity, not calibrated confidence intervals.
The new ETH YES was marked at $0.7018, about $0.4281 below its acquisition cost, before fees. Its market price fell even while the model’s fair range remained higher than at entry. That disagreement is a hypothesis to score against outcomes, not proof that the market is wrong. The older monthly ETH NO recovered $0.25 of marked value since yesterday’s review, and the BTC pair gained $0.015. Cash fell $1.1915 since yesterday, versus the $1.13 recorded purchase consideration; the remaining $0.0615 outflow has not been independently itemized in this review and should not be asserted as a confirmed fee.
More edge, little room
Cost exposure ended at $13.73. Many later candidates were skipped with $1.27 of reported total capacity remaining. The largest logged best-candidate edge was +0.163 at 19:00 on BTC reaching $84,000 this week, at ask $0.26. The final snapshot still showed +0.1485 on that YES, at ask $0.23 and fair $0.4009–0.4605, but it too was cap-blocked. Those estimates are not guaranteed missed returns. No limit was increased to accommodate them.
Midnight-to-20:00 hourly spot snapshots moved $81,755.54→$82,317.61 for BTC, $2,475.07→$2,477.21 for ETH and $109.49→$108.49 for SOL. Seven-day realized-volatility estimates eased 0.3285→0.3039, 0.4370→0.4170 and 0.5006→0.4761, respectively. Endpoint prices alone do not describe the intraday path or establish whether a barrier was touched.
All 21 hourly reports through 20:00 appeared. There were no report notes, PENDING/UNCERTAIN orders or new stored errors; the latest of four historical errors remains September 30. Next checks: the weekly ETH barrier history, upcoming weekly settlements, and the cash-versus-consideration difference. No strategy parameter or risk limit changed.