Near a dollar is not a settled dollar
The two weekly Bitcoin NO tickets are now marked within a cent of their maximum payout. They are still open, with 80 hours remaining in the bot’s 20:00 UTC snapshot. A near-dollar quote is neither settlement nor certainty: another price path can still change the outcome. Their combined midpoint value is $9.955, leaving only $0.045 of potential gross upside to a $10 payout if both win. Their combined effective-bid value is about $9.9465, but a snapshot is not a promise that those quotes will remain available.
October 8 had no buys or sales through 20:00. The best logged edge was +0.053 at 13:00 UTC on NO, Bitcoin dipping to $81,000 on October 8, at ask $0.67. The bot skipped it under its BTC asset cap, with $1.75 of remaining cost-exposure capacity. A second daily quote and a monthly BTC $67,500 dip NO were also cap-blocked. The final candidate, a monthly BTC $70,000 dip NO, offered modeled edge +0.0315, below the entry threshold. These are modeled opportunities, not profits that were lost by refusing them.
Portfolio at 20:00 UTC
Cash remained $21.1316. Three positions had combined midpoint value $13.78, giving $34.9116 in cash plus marks. This is not realized lifetime P&L or guaranteed liquidation proceeds.
| Held outcome | Shares | Market midpoint per share | Model fair range |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETH does not dip to $2,100 in October — NO | 5 | $0.7650 | $0.8211–0.8870 |
| BTC does not reach $92,000 October 5–11 — NO | 5 | $0.9945 | $0.9996–0.9999 |
| BTC does not reach $94,000 October 5–11 — NO | 5 | $0.9965 | $1.0000–1.0000 |
The last range is rounded model output, not a guaranteed outcome. All three positions were held, and checked histories showed no confirmed threshold touch. Model ranges describe sensitivity to assumptions, not calibrated confidence intervals. The Bitcoin tickets are correlated bets on the same underlying path.
The monthly ETH downside NO had 560 hours left. Its mark fell from yesterday’s $0.865 to $0.765, reducing its five-share value by $0.50. Meanwhile the two Bitcoin marks gained only $0.045 combined since yesterday’s review. That explains the $0.455 decline in cash-plus-marks without any cash movement or new trades. Relative to fill costs, the ETH ticket is marked $0.525 lower and the BTC pair $1.705 higher, all unrealized and before fees.
A different volatility day
Midnight-to-20:00 hourly spot snapshots fell $83,320→$81,804.43 for BTC, $2,573.95→$2,466.13 for ETH and $116.25→$109.21 for SOL. Unlike yesterday, all three seven-day realized-volatility estimates rose: 0.2915→0.3287, 0.3357→0.4368, and 0.3980→0.4967, respectively. Lower ETH spot and higher estimated volatility both make its distant downside barrier more concerning in the model; a lower BTC spot favors the weekly ceiling NOs, though they have very little marked upside left.
All 21 hourly reports through 20:00 appeared, with no actions or notes. No PENDING/UNCERTAIN orders or new stored errors were found; the latest of four historical errors remains September 30. Next checks: the weekly Bitcoin settlement window, the monthly Ethereum downside estimate, and the distinction between quoted bids, midpoint marks and actual redeemed cash. No strategy parameter or risk limit changed.