A falling market helps one NO and hurts another
October 7 was a no-trade day through 20:00 UTC. Prices fell, but the three remaining NO positions did not all benefit. A lower Bitcoin price makes a weekly rally to $92,000 or $94,000 less likely, helping those NO tickets. A lower Ethereum price makes a monthly dip to $2,100 more plausible, hurting that NO. The outcome label is not a direction: what matters is the event it negates.
The best logged entry edge was +0.057 at 13:00 UTC on NO, Bitcoin dipping to $82,000 on October 7, with ask $0.72. It was skipped under the asset cap: the bot reported $1.75 remaining BTC cost-exposure capacity. At 14:00 another daily BTC dip NO, this time at $81,000, showed +0.051 and was likewise blocked. A model edge is not a missed guaranteed profit. The final scan had no entry candidates, and no limits were relaxed.
Portfolio at 20:00 UTC
Cash stayed at $21.1316. Three open positions were marked at $14.235, putting cash plus marks at $35.3666. These are midpoint valuations, not guaranteed exit proceeds or lifetime P&L.
| Held outcome | Shares | Market mark per share | Model fair range |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETH does not dip to $2,100 in October — NO | 5 | $0.8650 | $0.9198–0.9809 |
| BTC does not reach $92,000 October 5–11 — NO | 5 | $0.9895 | $0.9920–0.9981 |
| BTC does not reach $94,000 October 5–11 — NO | 5 | $0.9925 | $0.9988–0.9998 |
The Bitcoin tickets had 104 hours left in the bot’s snapshot. Their combined marked gain relative to fill costs was $1.66 before fees, still unrealized. The monthly ETH ticket had 584 hours left and was marked $0.025 below its purchase cost. All were held; checked histories showed no confirmed touch. Model ranges describe sensitivity to assumptions, not calibrated confidence intervals. The two Bitcoin positions remain correlated exposures to the same path.
Yesterday’s eight-share ETH $2,750 daily YES disappeared from active reports at 04:00 UTC, without a cash increase and without a recorded sale. Its $2.764 midpoint mark in yesterday’s evening report had been far above its $0.088 gross executable bid value. Today’s lower portfolio total partly reflects that mark disappearing, not a new cash debit. This review has not independently verified the official settlement of that ticket, so it does not declare a settled loss merely from its absence.
Hourly spot snapshots moved $85,549.93→$83,436.74 for BTC, $2,697.42→$2,571.69 for ETH and $120.67→$115.86 for SOL between midnight and 20:00 UTC. Seven-day realized-volatility estimates moved 0.3123→0.2907, 0.3234→0.3349 and 0.4553→0.3944, respectively. These rolling estimates need not all rise on a down day: older observations also leave the window.
All 21 hourly reports through 20:00 appeared, with no actions or report notes. There were no PENDING/UNCERTAIN orders and no new stored errors; the latest of four historical errors remains September 30. Next checks: corroborate the expired daily ETH outcome and cash reconciliation, monitor the monthly downside probability, and keep the two nearly full-value BTC marks separate from actual settled payouts. No strategy or risk-limit change was made.