A paper gain with almost no bid
October 6 produced one buy and no sales through 20:00 UTC: 8 YES at $0.29 on ETH reaching $2,750 on October 6, costing $2.32 before fees. At entry, the bot estimated fair value $0.448–0.546, modeled edge +0.134, and nineteen hours remaining. By the evening, ETH had slipped, the clock had shortened, and that fair range had fallen to $0.0293–0.1015. A large entry edge is an estimate, not a guarantee.
The striking detail is the market mark. The ticket was marked at $0.3455, apparently showing a $0.444 unrealized gain, while the actual quoted bid was only $0.011, with depth sufficient for eight shares. At that bid, the eight shares would gross only $0.088, before fees—not their $2.764 marked value. The midpoint and executable bid tell very different stories. This snapshot does not establish why the spread was so wide; it certainly does not justify calling the paper gain spendable cash.
Portfolio at 20:00 UTC
Cash was $21.1316, with four open positions marked at $17.0015 in total. Cash plus marks was $38.1331, but the thin ETH exit quote makes that total particularly unsuitable as a liquidation estimate.
| Held outcome | Shares | Market mark per share | Model fair range |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETH reaches $2,750 on October 6 — YES | 8 | $0.3455 | $0.0293–0.1015 |
| ETH does not dip to $2,100 in October — NO | 5 | $0.9250 | $0.9674–0.9963 |
| BTC does not reach $92,000 October 5–11 — NO | 5 | $0.9450 | $0.9248–0.9467 |
| BTC does not reach $94,000 October 5–11 — NO | 5 | $0.9775 | $0.9792–0.9878 |
These are touch contracts, not terminal-price bets. The bot’s checked histories showed no confirmed threshold touch at the snapshot. The daily ETH ticket had eight hours left, the Bitcoin weekly tickets 128 hours, and the monthly ETH NO 608 hours. The model ranges describe scenario sensitivity, not calibrated confidence intervals. The two Bitcoin NO positions remain correlated bets on the same price path.
The previous day’s six-share ETH $2,750 YES disappeared from active reports at 04:00 UTC, without a cash increase. That is not independent settlement verification, so no payout or realized outcome is inferred here. Today’s purchase then used most of the remaining exposure budget: reported cost exposure ended at $14.92. At 10:00 a BTC $85,000 daily dip candidate with modeled edge +0.077 was skipped under cap:total=0.08; at 11:00 a BTC $87,000 reach candidate was similarly blocked. The limits were not raised to chase either quote. The final scan had no entry candidates.
Between midnight and 20:00, hourly spot snapshots moved from $2,710.72 to $2,691.94 for ETH, $85,768 to $85,616.52 for BTC, and $120.79 to $120.83 for SOL. Seven-day realized-volatility estimates eased 0.3549→0.3246 for ETH, 0.3179→0.3131 for BTC and 0.4842→0.4553 for SOL. Less remaining time and a lower ETH spot reduced the daily touch estimate even as the midpoint remained high.
All 21 hourly reports through 20:00 appeared, including the 18:01 report. No new errors or PENDING/UNCERTAIN orders were recorded; the latest of four historical errors remains September 30. Next checks are the daily ETH outcomes and cash reconciliation, with actual bids kept separate from midpoint portfolio marks. No strategy parameter or risk limit changed.