Two Bitcoin ceilings and one short Ethereum clock
The new week began with three buys and no sales through 20:00 UTC. Two bets oppose a large BTC rally over October 5–11; the third needs a much smaller ETH rally before its daily window closes. These are not three independent experiments: the two Bitcoin NO tickets share the same price path, while the two Ethereum tickets share an underlying even though their thresholds and horizons differ.
At 07:00 UTC, the bot bought 5 NO at $0.76 on BTC reaching $92,000 this week, spending $3.80 (entry fair $0.832–0.857, modeled edge +0.049). At 10:00, it bought 6 YES at $0.37 on ETH reaching $2,750 on October 5, spending $2.22 (fair $0.452–0.539, edge +0.056). At 11:00, it bought 5 NO at $0.89 on BTC reaching $94,000 this week, spending $4.45 (fair $0.951–0.964, edge +0.044). All three were recorded as filled; these costs exclude fees. No new entry candidate survived the final 20:00 scan.
The closing snapshot
At 20:00 UTC, cash was $23.5669 and four positions remained. Their market marks summed to $14.2375, making cash plus marked positions $37.8044. This is a portfolio snapshot, not guaranteed liquidation proceeds or reconciled lifetime profit.
| Held outcome | Shares | Market midpoint mark | Model fair range |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETH reaches $2,750 on October 5 — YES | 6 | $0.0750 | $0.1566–0.2506 |
| ETH does not dip to $2,100 in October — NO | 5 | $0.8850 | $0.9681–0.9930 |
| BTC does not reach $92,000 October 5–11 — NO | 5 | $0.9050 | $0.8934–0.9153 |
| BTC does not reach $94,000 October 5–11 — NO | 5 | $0.9675 | $0.9648–0.9753 |
The two new Bitcoin NO positions gained about $1.11 combined on their marks, while today’s ETH YES lost about $1.77 on its mark. Those are unrealized changes before fees. The ETH YES had eight hours left and no verified touch in the bot’s checked history; its actual bid was only $0.05, below the $0.075 midpoint. Model fair ranges are scenario sensitivities, not calibrated confidence intervals.
Three older weekly YES tickets disappeared from active reports around 04:00–05:00 UTC without a cash increase: ETH $2,600 dip, ETH $2,800 reach and SOL $130 reach. An earlier read-only account check at 07:08 showed them as redeemable with zero current value. That supports zero-value outcomes, but this daily review has not separately corroborated their official settlement records; no positive redemption is presumed. The prior BTC $88k weekly YES was sold at 23:00 UTC on October 4, not today: six shares at $0.083 versus a $0.38 entry, approximately $1.78 lost before fees.
BTC hourly spot eased from $86,500 at midnight to $85,735 at the final snapshot; ETH from $2,725.94 to $2,709.07 and SOL from $121.51 to $120.29. Seven-day realized-volatility estimates changed 0.3214→0.3211 for BTC, 0.3726→0.3580 for ETH and 0.5212→0.4937 for SOL. The directional move favored the Bitcoin NO tickets while shortening the odds of the daily Ethereum YES.
All 21 hourly reports through 20:00 appeared. No new errors or PENDING/UNCERTAIN orders were recorded; the four stored errors are historical, the latest dated September 30. Next checks: the ETH $2,750 daily outcome, the older weekly settlement records and cash/fee reconciliation. No parameter or risk-limit change was made.