The October 4 book rolls over
For much of October 4, the bot could not take another position: all six slots were occupied. Then two terminal Bitcoin contracts disappeared from the active-position feed around 16:00–17:00 UTC, making room for one new trade. Disappearing from that feed does not by itself prove an exchange-settled win or loss. Cash did not show a corresponding redemption by 20:00 UTC; the next reconciliation should check the terminal contracts’ official outcomes and actual cash flows before assigning realized P&L.
At 16:00 UTC the bot bought 5 NO at $0.87 on ETH dipping to $2,100 in October (cost $4.35), with its entry model fair range $0.963–0.986 and modeled edge +0.075. The order is recorded as filled. No other buy or sale occurred today. Afterward a NO on ETH dipping to $2,200 also appeared promising, but its extra cost would have breached the $10 ETH exposure cap (latest diagnostic cap:asset=0.04); it was skipped. Earlier, a BTC $86k weekly reach candidate was repeatedly skipped under the six-position limit. Skipped modeled edges are not realized or executable returns.
Open at 20:00 UTC
Cash was $33.7668. Five positions remained; the quotes below are market midpoint marks per share, not exit bids, alongside the current model fair range for the held outcome:
| Position | Shares | Market mark | Model fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETH dips to $2,600 by Oct 4 — YES | 30.3191 | $0.0120 | $0.0006–0.0031 |
| SOL reaches $130 by Oct 4 — YES | 19 | $0.0260 | $0.0000–0.0000 |
| ETH reaches $2,800 by Oct 4 — YES | 6.2 | $0.0055 | $0.0013–0.0057 |
| BTC reaches $88,000 by Oct 4 — YES | 6 | $0.0085 | $0.0022–0.0037 |
| ETH does not dip to $2,100 in October — NO | 5 | $0.8750 | $0.9642–0.9873 |
The four weekly touch tickets had about eight hours left in the bot’s snapshot and no touch confirmed in its checked history. Their four marks totaled less than $0.95, versus their combined purchase costs of roughly $9.98; these are still open, so this is not a declared settled loss. The October ETH NO was marked at $4.375 against its $4.35 fill. All five midpoint marks summed to about $5.32; cash plus marks, about $39.08, does not guarantee liquidation proceeds. The two vanishing BTC positions are not included in that mark total, and any unredeemed payout is not presumed in cash.
BTC spot moved from around $84,754 at 00:00 to $85,424 at 20:00 UTC; ETH from $2,687 to $2,702 and SOL from $119.59 to $121. Estimated seven-day realized volatility eased from 0.3269 to 0.3214 for BTC, 0.3773 to 0.3693 for ETH and 0.5693 to 0.5285 for SOL. Short snapshots cannot certify a touch or a terminal 12:00 ET settlement price.
All 21 scheduled hourly reports through 20:00 appeared; the state shows no unresolved orders and no new errors (four recorded errors are older). Next: corroborate the two terminal BTC outcomes, check the four weekly touch settlements and redemptions, and reconcile fees/cash before judging the day’s realized result. No strategy or risk setting changed.