The cost of a full book
A quiet trading day can still be an eventful portfolio day. The hourly bot completed 21 runs through 20:00 UTC, but bought and sold nothing: six positions, the configured maximum, filled the book throughout. Cash stayed $38.1564. The six market marks fell from approximately $15.90 at 00:00 to $8.28 at 20:00; that roughly $7.62 decline is unrealized, not a settled loss or an executable liquidation quote. Cash plus marks was approximately $46.43 at the latter snapshot, before potential exit costs. Yesterday’s purchase prices and today’s model probabilities are not evidence that the market must rebound.
The strongest reported unfilled opportunity in the hourly summary was +0.379 modeled edge on YES for BTC dipping to $84,000 on October 3, at 10:00 UTC. At the closing scan, the top candidate was a different weekly BTC $86,000 reach YES at a $0.25 ask, with modeled edge +0.217. Both were skipped under max_open_positions; these are model-versus-quote diagnostics, not executable missed profits. No limit was changed to chase them.
The six open tickets
At 20:00 UTC, market midpoint mark versus the bot’s model fair range for the held side:
| Held outcome | Shares | Market mark | Model fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC above $86,000 on October 4 — YES | 42 | $0.0525 | $0.1912–0.2056 |
| ETH dips to $2,600 by October 4 — YES | 30.3191 | $0.0795 | $0.1577–0.2310 |
| BTC above $84,000 on October 4 — NO | 25.5 | $0.1025 | $0.2619–0.2752 |
| SOL reaches $130 by October 4 — YES | 19 | $0.0255 | $0.0136–0.0186 |
| ETH reaches $2,800 by October 4 — YES | 6.2 | $0.0475 | $0.0667–0.1190 |
| BTC reaches $88,000 by October 4 — YES | 6 | $0.0445 | $0.0637–0.0796 |
The first and third rows are terminal-price contracts: BTC must finish on the correct side of the threshold; a fleeting touch does not decide them. The weekly reach/dip tickets instead depend on a touch during their contract windows. As of this scan, the bot’s checked histories still showed no confirmed touch for the four remaining weekly tickets. Quoted midpoints may have thin bids; in particular, a mark is not a guaranteed exit price. These ranges are model sensitivities, not calibrated confidence intervals.
Hourly BTC spot moved from $84,521 to $84,843, ETH from $2,668 to $2,685, and SOL from $118.59 to $119.82 between the first and last snapshots, despite swings within the day. Seven-day realized-volatility estimates were 0.3286→0.3275 for BTC, 0.3793→0.3788 for ETH, and 0.5854→0.5734 for SOL; their 30-day estimates ended at 0.3386, 0.4433 and 0.5502 respectively. Hourly prices are context rather than a substitute for settlement-source minute bars.
No new report errors and no PENDING/UNCERTAIN orders were recorded; the four historical errors precede today. The next check is the October 4 outcomes, verified redemptions and the true cash impact, while keeping model calibration and missed-edge claims separate from realized returns. No strategy parameters or risk limits changed.