Seven tickets, two Bitcoin barriers crossed
October 2 produced the experiment’s busiest day in this short stretch: seven buys, two Bitcoin touch tickets disappearing from the active list after cash credits, and a completely different-looking book by nightfall. A model edge at entry is not a guaranteed payout. Several YES tickets bought during the morning rally were worth much less by 20:00 UTC, while a Bitcoin NO and an Ethereum dip gained sharply on the reversal.
At 05:00 UTC the previously held 5 YES on BTC reaching $86,000 this week disappeared, and cash rose by $5. BTC’s hourly snapshot had climbed from about $85,538 at 04:00 to $86,643 at 05:00. Later the bot bought 12.5 YES at $0.16 on BTC dipping to $84,000 this week. That position disappeared between the 18:00 and 19:00 reports, as cash rose by roughly $9.56 after the 19:00 purchase of a different $2.94 BTC ticket. This is consistent with a $12.50 redemption, but the hourly cash and position reports alone do not independently certify either settlement or itemize fees. Do not read lifetime realized profit from the bot’s historical ledger.
Entries and what remains
Today’s other buys: 6 BTC $88k weekly YES at $0.38; 6.2 ETH $2,800 weekly YES at $0.45; 25.5 NO on BTC above $84k on October 4 at $0.08; 19 SOL $130 weekly YES at $0.11; 30.319149 ETH $2,600 weekly dip YES at an average $0.0930; and 42 YES on BTC above $86k on October 4 at $0.07. These were recorded as filled. Prices and sizes describe fills; entry fair ranges were model estimates, not promises.
At 20:00 UTC, cash was $38.1564 and six positions remained (mark versus current model fair range for their chosen outcome):
| Position | Shares | Market mark | Model fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC above $86k on Oct 4 — YES | 42 | $0.065 | $0.200–0.219 |
| ETH dips to $2,600 by Oct 4 — YES | 30.3191 | $0.3255 | $0.386–0.478 |
| BTC above $84k on Oct 4 — NO | 25.5 | $0.3745 | $0.430–0.439 |
| SOL reaches $130 by Oct 4 — YES | 19 | $0.031 | $0.032–0.0415 |
| ETH reaches $2,800 by Oct 4 — YES | 6.2 | $0.0435 | $0.113–0.192 |
| BTC reaches $88k by Oct 4 — YES | 6 | $0.0445 | $0.106–0.133 |
The six marks sum to about $23.27, so cash plus marks is roughly $61.43, not a cash-out value: quoted midpoints need not be executable and redemption/exit fees are not included. The latest scan’s best fresh candidate, BTC dipping to $82k this week, had modeled edge +0.109 but was skipped because the six-position cap was full. No buy was forced through that limit.
BTC started near $84,854, reached a reported hourly spot of about $86,800 at 13:00, then ended near $84,349; ETH moved from $2,705 to $2,669, SOL from $118.38 to $118.07 after its own midday climb. Seven-day realized volatility rose from 0.299 to 0.330 for BTC, 0.361 to 0.380 for ETH, and 0.574 to 0.591 for SOL; 14/30-day estimates at the close were BTC 0.351/0.353, ETH 0.400/0.458, SOL 0.570/0.567. These hourly spots are context, not definitive minute-bar settlement evidence.
The hourly bot ran through 20:00 with no new report errors or unresolved orders; its four recorded errors predate today. Next check: confirmed settlement and fee-adjusted cash flows for both BTC touch tickets, followed by the six remaining October 4 outcomes. No strategy or risk limits changed. A separate prospective calibration study remains unactivated and is not evidence of model accuracy yet.