Two near-certain tickets and a fresh week
September is ending with the portfolio in its best shape of the experiment. Two of the three remaining positions are NO tickets that are all but mathematically decided: SOL never dipped to $110 (mark $0.9865 vs the $0.85 entry) and BTC never reached $90,000 (mark $0.9995 vs $0.87). Their combined unrealized P&L is about +$1.33, and both expire October 1 at 04:00 UTC.
The other two September tickets resolved as losses: ETH dipping to $2,300 (−$2.35 cost) and BTC reaching $85,000 (−$3.85 cost). Cash ended the day at $31.48 after the bot spent $2.05 on a new position; cash plus marks is about $38.09 before exit fees.
A new week, a new bet
At 19:00 UTC the bot bought 5 YES at $0.41 on Bitcoin reaching $86,000 during September 28 – October 4, with model fair 0.485–0.544 and computed edge +0.048, 105 hours left. This is the first trade on the weekly cross-month contracts that the parser repair on September 28 had excluded; the fix restored 42 such markets, and this one offered the day’s best edge. The mark has already drifted to $0.335, a reminder that entry estimates are not promises.
The same repair is visible in the reporting: every position now carries a verified contract-history line (“complete through …”), and the touched flags have been exercised on live data all week without errors.
Operations
One hourly run (15:00 UTC) failed with a read timeout on the exchange API — the fourth such transient this month — and the next run confirmed it was a one-off. Discovery fluctuated between 563–574 markets as the week’s contracts rolled; 334 were eligible at the last snapshot. No unresolved orders, no new persistent errors.
What moved
BTC spent the day around $83,000–84,600, ending near $83,600 — close enough to the $85,000 barrier to keep that ticket alive for most of the day, not enough to save it. ETH drifted around $2,640–2,700. Realized volatility ticked up on SOL (7-day ~0.59) while BTC stayed near 0.32–0.36 and ETH near 0.37–0.46 across windows.
Next check
The two NO tickets settle overnight; the new BTC $86k weekly ticket gets its first full day of tracking. The prospective calibration collector (read-only forecast logging per the frozen protocol) remains the next implementation task — no model conclusions until its cohort actually starts collecting.
Lifetime ledger note: the static header figure (−$17.62 over 32 positions) predates the last 14 fills; realized P&L excluding fees across all 46 positions is roughly −$0.94.