Thirty-two hours left, and one missing hour
The portfolio barely moved in aggregate today. That is not the same as its bets getting healthier. Three weekly tickets now have 32 hours remaining, and the bot’s estimates of their chances have fallen. Meanwhile, the September Bitcoin $90,000 NO ticket gained value as its remaining chance of losing declined in the model.
Cash stayed at 36.8233 USDC. At 20:00 UTC, cash plus displayed marks was $42.5358, five cents below yesterday’s same-time snapshot. At quoted bids the total was $42.3693 before exit fees, down roughly 1.6 cents. No purchases or sales were recorded today through this review.
A large signal that stayed on paper
The highest computed edge in the available snapshots was +0.403 at 09:00 UTC, on YES for Bitcoin reaching $85,000 on September 26. The ask was 14 cents; the model range was 56.14–58.30%, with 19 hours remaining. Estimated fees raised the effective ask to 14.84 cents, and the one-cent extra haircut left the reported edge.
The decision was cap:asset=0.80. Bitcoin purchase-cost exposure remained $9.20 against a $10 cap. Total open cost was $13.50 against $15, leaving $1.50 overall. Both budgets were below the configured $2 minimum sizing budget. The candidate was blocked before later execution checks; 800 displayed shares at the ask do not by themselves establish a profitable executable trade.
Such a wide model-market disagreement is not a return. It remains an unvalidated estimate, especially given the losses on existing tickets that the model also favored. No cap or strategy parameter changed during this review.
What is still held
| Position | Shares | Entry average | Model fair range | Bid | Displayed value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC reaches $88k, Sep 21–27 — YES | 13 | 0.1899 | 0.0251–0.0339 | 0.007 | $0.1300 |
| BTC dips to $82k, Sep 21–27 — YES | 7 | 0.3399 | 0.2420–0.2692 | 0.060 | $0.4550 |
| BTC reaches $90k, September — NO | 5 | 0.8700 | 0.9194–0.9361 | 0.945 | $4.7275 |
| ETH dips to $2,600, Sep 21–27 — YES | 5 | 0.3900 | 0.1988–0.2561 | 0.051 | $0.3300 |
| ETH dips to $2,300, September — YES | 5 | 0.4700 | 0.0006–0.0023 | 0.011 | $0.0700 |
The five positions have a combined displayed value of $5.7125 against $13.50 purchase consideration: approximately $7.79 unrealized loss, excluding additional fees. All remain hold under the current exit rule. The monthly tickets have 104 hours remaining.
The weekly BTC $88k YES estimate fell from yesterday’s 9.39–11.86% to 2.51–3.39%. Its market mark actually edged up, but the position is still worth only 13 cents in total. For the monthly BTC NO, the effective bid of 94.14 cents is only about half a cent above the model’s upper estimate of 93.61 cents—not enough for the four-cent exit threshold. These are applications of the existing rules, not claims that holding is optimal.
Spot and volatility
From 00:00 to 20:00 UTC on September 26, the bot recorded:
- BTCUSDT: spot $84,096.00 → $84,016.63; seven-day annualized realized volatility 36.46% → 36.14%.
- ETHUSDT: spot $2,691.36 → $2,684.25; seven-day annualized realized volatility 41.69% → 41.06%.
- SOLUSDT: spot $122.13 → $121.12; seven-day annualized realized volatility 54.74% → 55.23%.
All three spot endpoints were lower. BTC and ETH seven-day volatility estimates declined slightly; SOL’s increased slightly. These are stored model inputs, not a news-based explanation for price moves. With little time left, the weekly touch contracts are increasingly sensitive to the remaining horizon.
The missing hour
The 19:00 UTC run failed when the positions API returned HTTP 429. The deployed bounded retry handling was still installed; the failure does not demonstrate a regression or identify the upstream reason for throttling. Without positions, the run stopped rather than continuing to trade against an incomplete account view.
The next natural run, 20:00:23 UTC, completed successfully. The daily history contains 20 successful snapshots from 00:00 through 20:00, with the failed 19:00 hour missing. There are no PENDING or UNCERTAIN orders. The error counter now contains three historical events, including today’s failure; it does not mean three currently failed cycles.
This establishes recovery at 20:00, not immunity to another rate limit. No manual trading run or test order was used.
Next check
The next scheduled scan is September 26 at 21:00 UTC. Reported weekly deadlines remain September 28 at 04:00 UTC; the monthly tickets expire October 1 at 04:00 UTC. The immediate checks are continued API availability and the existing positions as their horizons shorten. The apparent model edges remain hypotheses, not booked profit.