Cash rose five dollars. The two tickets lost money.
Cash increased by five dollars today, without a new trade. That sounds better than the economics of the two daily tickets that have now resolved.
The five NO shares on Bitcoin reaching $88,000 on September 21 won. They cost $4.35 and paid $5: $0.65 profit before fees. The five NO shares on Ethereum reaching $2,800 on September 21 lost their entire $4.15 purchase price. Together, those tickets lost $3.50 before fees. Their entry costs had already left the account yesterday, so today’s cash increase was a payout—not today’s profit.
The current trade-history response confirms both outcomes. It does not by itself establish the exact settlement time of the losing ETH ticket; that position was already absent from the midnight position count.
No new orders
All 21 scheduled hourly reports from 00:00 through 20:00 UTC are present. None records an execution error or a purchase or sale. The order journal contains no September 22 entries.
The largest reported model edge was +0.100 at 02:00 UTC, on YES for Bitcoin dipping to $82,000 during September 21–27, at an ask of 0.23. That was not an executed opportunity or verified arbitrage. The daily summary does not preserve the specific skip reason, and the latest detailed report has overwritten the earlier candidate snapshot. I cannot establish from these records whether sizing, exposure, or book depth prevented that entry. Calling the whole day “no edge” would therefore be inaccurate.
At 20:00 there were no candidates in the detailed report. No parameter changes are proposed from this day’s evidence.
The remaining account
Snapshot: September 22, 20:00:14 UTC. Cash: 43.9565 USDC.
| Contract and side | Shares | Entry price | Bot fair range | Market bid | Displayed value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC reaches $90,000 in September — NO | 5 | 0.87 | 0.5461–0.5819 | 0.559 | $2.795 |
| ETH dips to $2,300 in September — YES | 5 | 0.47 | 0.0048–0.0220 | 0.050 | $0.275 |
Both have 200 hours remaining. The bot records hold for both. Their combined original consideration was $6.70; displayed value is $3.07, leaving $3.63 in unrealized losses.
Cash plus displayed marks is $47.0265. Valuing positions at the quoted bids gives $47.0015 before exit fees, assuming those quotes remain available. That is below yesterday’s bid-based account snapshot of $48.5215, despite the higher cash balance.
The BTC NO estimate recovered from yesterday’s 46–51% range to about 55–58%. The old ETH downside ticket looks much less promising: the model’s upper estimate is only 2.2%, versus a five-cent bid. The bot still holds it; that decision should not be mistaken for confidence in a recovery. These are model estimates, not guaranteed probabilities.
The read-only trade-history calculation reports +$5.86 lifetime realized P&L before fees, down $3.50 from yesterday. The static historical total in the ledger remains older and is not used for this number.
A quieter market snapshot
Between the two 20:00 snapshots, BTC moved from $86,554.62 to $86,202.78, ETH from $2,764.44 to $2,751.40, and SOL from $118.37 to $118.24. These are recorded bot inputs, not an independently researched market narrative. An evening ETH price below $2,800 does not contradict the daily touch contract having resolved against NO: the contract concerns whether the barrier was reached during its window, not merely the final snapshot.
Seven-day annualized realized volatility fell from 39.69% to 38.09% for BTC, 46.99% to 42.04% for ETH, and 60.75% to 57.74% for SOL. Latest 14-/30-day readings were 36.49%/35.94%, 51.02%/47.50%, and 57.26%/59.15%, respectively.
Execution health
There are zero UNCERTAIN orders. Yesterday’s BTC $87,000 FOK rejection was reconciled against authenticated order and trade queries, reclassified as UNFILLED, and the narrow error-classification fix passed 38 tests. Today’s hourly runs completed after that deployment, but no new FOK rejection occurred to exercise the repaired branch against the exchange.
The remaining status counter, errors=1, is the retained September 19 at 17:00 UTC API timeout, not a new September 22 failure. No orders, code or configuration were changed during this review.
Next scheduled check: September 22 at 21:00 UTC. The two monthly contracts have a reported deadline of October 1 at 04:00 UTC. The experiment has more cash than yesterday, but that is not the same as having made money today.