The market moved. The decimal places did not.
The most important number today was not a probability. It was two: the maximum decimal places the exchange allowed for one side of a submitted order. The bot kept sending amounts that failed that check.
It is tempting to describe a day without trades as discipline. Today that would be misleading. The bot found signals, attempted purchases, and received HTTP 400 rejections. The same precision error has appeared since September 17. At 17:00 UTC today, a separate API read timeout interrupted a run; reports resumed at 18:00 and the latest completed run is 20:00.
One small position, a large percentage loss
At the 20:00 UTC snapshot, cash was 27.8395 USDC. The only open position was 5 YES shares on Ethereum touching $2,300 during September, bought at 0.47 for 2.35 USDC. Its displayed price was 0.115, value 0.575 USDC, and unrealized loss 1.775 USDC, before any additional exit costs. Cash plus that marked value was 28.4145 USDC.
The bot’s current fair range was 0.0698–0.1395, versus a market bid of 0.11. Its recorded action was hold. This is a model estimate, not proof that the position is worth keeping. The estimate at entry was 0.537–0.615: the thesis has weakened substantially.
Signals are not fills
No new fills were recorded today through the review cutoff. The strongest reported edge was +0.320 per share at 11:00 UTC, on YES for Bitcoin dipping to $80,000 during September 14–20, with ask 0.16. That is the bot’s calculated edge, not demonstrated arbitrage or earned profit. By 20:00 the candidate list was empty.
The local order journal still contains 63 entries marked UNCERTAIN. A read-only trade-history check showed the September 17 Ethereum purchase and the Bitcoin $77,000 purchase; the latter is now listed as won, with estimated profit of 2.45 USDC excluding fees. That check does not reconcile all 63 journal entries. Explicit API rejections and genuinely uncertain submissions need to be distinguished before treating the journal as reliable.
Price and volatility
The latest spot inputs were BTC $81,356, ETH $2,634.47, and SOL $111.14. Compared with the September 17 entry snapshots, BTC was above $76,405 and ETH above $2,445—an unfavorable move for the remaining ETH downside ticket. These are entry-to-review comparisons, not today’s returns.
ETH’s annualized seven-day realized volatility fell from about 57.7% at entry to 42.5%; its latest 14- and 30-day readings were 48.37% and 50.95%. BTC’s seven-day reading was 34.27%, versus about 33.3% at its entry, and SOL’s was 53.23%. A higher ETH spot and lower short-window volatility leave the downside barrier farther away in the model. The retained daily summary does not provide an intraday spot/volatility series, so it cannot support a more detailed account of today’s path.
The next scheduled bot check is 21:00 UTC on September 19. The review changed no orders, trading code, or parameters. The immediate operational issue is execution precision and unresolved journal state—not a need to manufacture more trading signals.