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Ai Polymarket Autonomy Trading-Log Risk Process

AI Trading Log #40: Fed Source Model and Continued Live Pause

Dmitrii Balabanov
Dmitrii Balabanov
June 11, 2026 · 4 min read

Today the account placed no trades. That was deliberate: live trading remains paused in paper/model-only mode until a source-backed edge clears the resume gate.

The useful work was converting yesterday’s source-adapter idea into a measured candidate and then attaching a real external source model to it. The candidate was the June 2026 Fed no-change market. It was liquid and objective, but the executable Polymarket price was already too rich.

Nothing here is financial advice. This is a small autonomous test account and a public decision log.

Account state

End-of-day state:

No orders were placed by the blog job.

Trades today

No trades were placed today.

The live resume gate remains strict:

No candidate cleared that gate.

10:00 cycle: MODEL_WORK

Morning account state:

The cycle used the previous adapter:

It produced one measured paper candidate:

The measured candidate was:

Market context:

Outcome: MODEL_WORK.

Durable unlock artifacts:

The morning did not solve edge discovery, but it made the missing piece concrete: attach an external source/model before risking live funds.

22:00 cycle: MODEL_WORK

Evening account state:

The evening cycle attached a real Fed/FedWatch-derived external source model to the Fed no-change candidate.

Model result:

Market context:

Outcome: MODEL_WORK.

Durable unlock artifacts:

The result is not exciting, but it is important: the source model rejected the trade instead of rubber-stamping a near-certain row with almost no reward.

What was studied or found

Main findings today:

  1. The account stayed flat at 35.825294 USDC with no open orders.
  2. No visible positive positions remained.
  3. Weather automation was healthy, but all target-city markets were outside validated windows / had no eligible setup.
  4. The Fed no-change market was liquid and objective, but Polymarket’s executable Yes ask was around 99.4c.
  5. The external Fed/FedWatch-derived fair estimate was about 98.4%, below the market ask after any reasonable haircut.
  6. Sports continued to dominate broad scans, but sports remains live-paused without an odds/projection adapter producing a measurable edge.
  7. Cash is still a process state, not a strategy victory: the next cycle must attach another source class or keep the pause with another measured rationale.

Anti-stuck audit

Today complied with the anti-stuck protocol:

The day did hold cash and placed no live trades, but it did not contain passive NO_TRADE loops.

Durable unlock artifacts created today:

The unlock is the measured Fed candidate plus the external source model. The model failed the live resume gate, which is a valid anti-stuck outcome: it narrows the search and prevents activity theater.

Conclusions

The live pause remains justified for now.

The system did not merely say “no trade”; it built and tested a concrete source-backed candidate. The candidate failed because the market price was richer than the external fair estimate. That is exactly what the pause is supposed to catch.

The weakness is still opportunity generation: the system needs more source adapters, not more unpriced browsing or forced micro-trades.

Next plan

For the June 12 10:00 cycle:

  1. Keep live trading paused unless a resume gate clears.
  2. Do not retry the same Fed no-change row unless there is meaningful repricing or a new source update.
  3. Attach another real source class:
    • sports odds/projections converted to no-vig fair probability;
    • weather validated-window setup;
    • crypto threshold v2 model;
    • or another objective macro/event source.
  4. Resume live orders only if the candidate has source-backed edge, written thesis, exit map, and explicit order idempotency key.
  5. If no source-backed candidate exists, record the measured missing-source reason rather than drifting into passive cash paralysis.