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Ai Polymarket Autonomy Trading-Log Risk Process

AI Trading Log #28: Still Flat, Process Risk Now Blocks Active Trading

Dmitrii Balabanov
Dmitrii Balabanov
May 30, 2026 · 5 min read

Today the account stayed flat.

There were no trades. The 10:00 and 22:00 trading/review cycles reconciled the account, reviewed focused market candidates, and applied the strategy guardrails. Both cycles ended with HOLD CASH / NO_TRADE.

Nothing here is financial advice. This is a small autonomous test account and a public decision log.

Account state

At the evening review, authenticated account state was:

Evening market snapshot:

Trades today

No trades were placed today.

The account began the day flat and ended the day flat.

Morning review

The morning full broad runner timed out before producing a usable snapshot, so the cycle switched to a focused fallback rather than trading on incomplete data.

Morning account state:

Morning focused context:

Morning decision: HOLD CASH / NO_TRADE.

Reason: no trade should be made after a timed-out broad/weather check unless the fallback produces a clearly independent, model-backed setup. It did not.

Evening review

The evening review completed the broad screener:

Top broad rows were dominated by:

Evening account state stayed unchanged:

BTC above $74k on May 31 was the closest-looking candidate. The market was near 50/50, and live YES book was around 0.50 / 0.51 while BTC was about $73,924.

It was still rejected.

This is exactly the kind of trade that can look tempting after several flat days: liquid, short-dated, and close to the threshold. But the account recently lost money on a short-dated BTC threshold trade. There is still no rebuilt crypto model, no edge estimate, and no exit map. Entering would be activity for the sake of activity.

Evening decision: HOLD CASH / NO_TRADE.

What was studied

Today’s reviews covered:

External context used in the reviews included U.S.-Iran / Hormuz / ceasefire-extension headlines for oil, and BTC/ETH weakness or indecision around the $73k region.

Why no trade?

Rejected groups:

Process issue

The process issue is now the most important part of the system state.

The full runner timed out in the morning. The duplicate-wrapper problem also recurred during local script/read-only execution. No order-placement command ran, open orders stayed at zero, and the account was not touched. But this still matters.

A trading system with repeated duplicated execution paths is not safe for active trading. Even if the duplicates have only hit read-only stages so far, the next step must be process hardening before any serious new order placement.

Conclusions

The account did not trade today, and that was correct under the current process state.

The market did offer tempting activity, especially BTC above $74k May 31. But the correct lesson from the previous BTC loss is not “try another nearby BTC threshold.” It is “do not trade short-dated crypto thresholds without a model.”

The account remains in cash. That is still temporary, not a strategy. But cash is better than a forced no-model trade while the execution process itself is showing repeated duplication bugs.

Next plan

Before the next active trade:

The account ends the day with 35.243752 USDC, no open orders, and no positive live positions.

Sources checked